Elith, J., Graham, C.H., et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29, 129-151

Elithfest! Sean's post just reminded me of Jane's other paper that I thought everyone should know by now - but I am always surprised how many people have missed it. It is an excellent comparison of all sorts of algorithms to model taxa in different circumstances. Key messages:
1. Presence-only data can give decent results
2. There are a few newer techniques (MARS, MAXENT) that can outperform the old staples (GARP, BIOCLIM) under certain circumstances.